Here’s What CryptoQuant’s IBCI Signals for Bitcoin’s Next Move

Bitcoin (BTC) recently hit new all-time highs before entering a correction within the span of a day. Since then, the asset has recovered some ground and now sits at around $105,000.

While this sparked uncertainty among traders and analysts about its future trajectory, fresh data now suggests warning signs of a market top.

IBCI Hits Distribution Zone

CryptoQuant’s latest analysis revealed that the Index of Bitcoin Cycle Indicators (IBCI) has reached the distribution region for the first time in eight months. This trend indicates a potential warning for a cycle top in Bitcoin.

The IBCI, which aggregates seven key on-chain metrics, such as Puell Multiple, MVRV, NUPL, and SOPR, has not yet reached the critical 100% level that historically aligns with market corrections and bear phases. While the NUPL indicator approaches its upper zone, the Puell Multiple remains near the lower range, suggesting mixed signals in the current market.

The report states that the bullish market structure remains intact as long as the IBCI stays above 50%, pointing to continued demand and potential for further growth despite minor corrections. However, CryptoQuant advises caution, recommending close monitoring of additional indicators to confirm or refute the possibility of an imminent market top.

Meanwhile, crypto analyst Ali Martinez said that Bitcoin’s Accumulation Trend Score is approaching zero. This metric suggests that, on aggregate, larger entities or a significant portion of the Bitcoin network are either distributing their holdings or refraining from further accumulation.

Such a trend often serves as an early indicator of reduced demand from institutional players or long-term holders, which could have an impact on Bitcoin’s price in the near term.

Martinez also revealed that Bitcoin needs to watch a key support zone of $97,530. Holding above this level is important in maintaining the current bullish momentum.

Bitcoin Not Yet Overbought?

Glassnode’s analysis of the Mayer Multiple – the oscillator that compares Bitcoin’s price to its 200-day moving average (200DMA) – provided some relief for now. Historically, a Mayer Multiple above 2.4 signals overbought conditions, while a value below 0.8 indicates oversold levels.

Currently, Bitcoin’s Mayer Multiple sits at 1.37. This suggests that the price of Bitcoin, while above the 200DMA, remains well within neutral territory and far from the overbought threshold of ~$181K. This positioning implies that Bitcoin may still have room for upward movement before it hits a new peak.