Trump indicated potential escalation against Iran starting April 7. Odds for the Iranian regime to fall by June 30 are at 11.5% YES, down slightly from 12% yesterday.
The market remains sensitive to geopolitical signals. Oil prices surged past $112 per barrel, highlighting energy concerns. The Iranian regime fall market saw minor intraday movements, with the largest being a 1-point spike at 1:57 PM, briefly raising odds from 12% to 14%.
Current trading volume is $63,174 in USDC daily. It takes $12,303 to shift odds by 5 percentage points, showing significant liquidity. The small 1-point swing indicates traders are cautious, awaiting concrete developments. Without definitive military action, traders hesitate to bet heavily on regime instability.
Pressure on Iran is evident, but without clear triggers for regime change, this market remains speculative. At 11.5¢, a YES share pays $1 if the regime falls by June 30, offering a 8.7x return. Buyers would need to expect significant escalation or internal regime fractures soon.
Watch for Trump’s next briefing or CENTCOM updates. Escalation moves or signals from the Iranian regime could shift the odds. New intelligence or diplomatic changes will be crucial.
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