The analyst says a drop below $1,388 could undermine the technical setup behind the long-term bullish thesis.
Ethereum (ETH) could reach $20,000 in the next few years, according to Credible Crypto.
The premise for his thesis lies in ETH’s trading range of five years, weak relative performance vis-à-vis Bitcoin (BTC), as well as a potential rotation into higher-risk assets.
Analyst Sees ETH Breaking 5-Year Range
As explained by the analyst in Sunday’s episode of the No Bs Crypto podcast, ETH has been trading in a range of around $1,500 to $5,000 for about five years now, the token having touched both ends several times in the process, forming what he considers a large higher timeframe range.
Additionally, while Bitcoin is trading above the 2021 high, Ethereum is lagging behind, and according to Credible Crypto, the ETH/BTC ratio has reached such levels that it can allow ETH to catch up with BTC.
His basic target is $10,000. He argued that doubling Ethereum’s previous range high near $5,000 would produce that level, while a larger range expansion could push ETH toward $8,000 and $9,000 even before we consider other factors.
The $20,000 target will rely heavily on Bitcoin’s price. If the BTC price stands at about $80,000, where it is currently close to, with ETH/BTC recovering back to its earlier high of 0.156, then Credible says Ethereum will hit above $12,000.
“Now, if we take a more optimistic scenario with Bitcoin at $100K, that gives us over $15,000 Ethereum,” Credible told his host Kyren. “And if we take the most realistic scenario, in my opinion, the Bitcoin highs at $126K will be broken and we’ll actually trade above those levels. Now we’re pushing $20K Ethereum and above.”
The crypto trader also pointed to ETH’s higher risk compared to Bitcoin, with that, in his view, creating room for the former to deliver a larger return during a bull cycle. But his technical case rests on Ethereum defending a higher-timeframe low near $1,388.
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He believes a break below that level would invalidate the bullish structure. However, he considers a move below $1,500 increasingly unlikely and estimates there’s maybe a 90% chance that ETH does not return below $1,900.
Altcoins Could Follow Ethereum Higher
The latest market data gives the bullish case some context, as CoinGecko data shows ETH above $2,400 at the time of writing, up 3.5% in 24 hours and about 30% in seven days. In addition, it has gained more than 32% over 30 days but is still about 50% below its all-time high.
ETH’s recent double-digit one-day pump has also attracted historical comparison, with market watcher Jamie Coutts noting that several similar upticks in the past helped push up ETH prices as much as 60% higher within 180 days.
Other altcoins have also started moving faster, and that segment added $215 billion between August 19 and 22, pushing its total market cap above $1 trillion, with the share of Binance-listed altcoins trading above their 200-day moving average also rising from 15% to 56%.
According to Credible Crypto, some assets with stronger fundamentals could outperform ETH if the cycle continues, potentially delivering even bigger returns if Ethereum goes up tenfold from $2,000 to $20,000, as he predicts.
“I’ve talked about end-of-cycle targets for those altcoins, and those targets are 30, 40, 50x higher than where they trade today,” he said. “There’s no doubt in my mind that those levels will be met.”
